Geithner Presses China on Currency, Seeks Support on Iran

January 11, 2012, 1:23 AM EST By Ian Katz and Cheyenne Hopkins

(Updates with Geithner comment in third paragraph.)

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will urge Asia’s two biggest economies to cut Iranian oil imports and seek to narrow differences with China on trade and currency disputes on a visit to Beijing and Tokyo this week.

Geithner, who today holds talks with Premier Wen Jiabao, Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang, arrived in Beijing yesterday and met Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan. In Japan, he is due to meet with Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Finance Minister Jun Azumi tomorrow.

“On economic growth, financial stability around the world, on nonproliferation, we have what we view as a very strong cooperative relationship with the government and we are looking forward to building on that,” Geithner said at the start of his meeting with Xi.

Wang, appearing with Geithner yesterday, said the two countries “have a lot of issues to talk about in the areas of economy, finance, trade and investment.”

“Apart from the bilateral aspect, we are also having important cooperation in the multilateral and global arena in the areas of economy, finance, trade policies and also G-20 related affairs,” Wang said.

Geithner will probably encounter resistance in China, which disagrees with U.S. assertions that its currency is undervalued and is sparring with the Obama administration over trade in goods from chicken to steel. At the same time, he may seek to avert a public split at a time when a likely European slide to recession is already clouding the global economic outlook.

Treasury Bills

“These are the world’s second- and third-largest economies and the two biggest holders of Treasury bills,” said Stephen Myrow, a U.S. Treasury official during the administration of George W. Bush and now managing director of ACG Analytics Inc., a Washington investment research firm. “These are relationships that need to be continually nurtured.”

China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. government securities, with $1.13 trillion in October. Japan is second among foreign nations with $979 billion.

A plea to cut back on Iranian oil, tied to the Obama administration’s sanctions last month aimed at that country’s nuclear program, may not resonate with Chinese officials, intelligence and foreign-affairs analysts said.

“China will be less OK with it than Japan,” Matthew Levitt, a former financial intelligence official at the Treasury Department who is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in an interview. “But neither wants to be seen as rogue.”

Iranian Oil

The two countries are the largest importers of Iranian oil, with China accounting for 22 percent and Japan buying 14 percent of Tehran’s crude oil exports during the first half of last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. As a group, the European Union buys 18 percent of Iran’s oil exports.

Wen, China’s premier, will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar from Jan. 14 to Jan. 19, China’s foreign ministry said yesterday.

Wen will attend a conference in Abu Dhabi and make a speech about China’s energy policy, Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said in a statement on the ministry’s website. Wen will hold talks with leaders of the three nations during his six-day visit and “promote the development of China-Arab relations and relations with the Islamic world,” Liu said.

Trade Rules

In China, Geithner may tell officials that they need to follow through on pledges to shift the world’s second-largest economy more toward domestic demand and away from exports, William Cline, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said in an interview Jan. 9. The real value of the yuan “needs to rise by 10 to 20 percent,” he said.

President Barack Obama plans to form a government task force to monitor China’s compliance with U.S. trade rules, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

The panel will include officials from the Treasury, Commerce and Energy departments, and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, it said. An announcement of the enforcement task force is expected later this month, the newspaper said in its online edition.

Substantially Undervalued

The Treasury Department said Dec. 27 in its twice-yearly report on global currencies that the yuan is substantially undervalued and the U.S. will “press for policy changes that yield greater exchange-rate flexibility.” China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency replied in a commentary that the U.S. should move beyond the “useless, meaningless” quarrel over the exchange rate.

The yuan closed at 6.3150 in Shanghai yesterday, little changed from 6.3146 on Jan. 9, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The currency is allowed to trade 0.5 percent on either side of the daily fixing. In Hong Kong’s offshore market, the yuan slipped 0.03 percent to 6.3159.

China’s growth may slow to 8.5 percent this year, down from 9.2 percent in 2011, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The central bank lowered the required reserve ratio for banks for the first time in almost three years in December to encourage lending, a shifting of its stance from fighting inflation as price pressures ease.

Record Earthquake

The Treasury secretary arrives in Japan as that nation copes with a fading rebound from the aftermath of a record earthquake in March 2011. Gross domestic product probably shrank 0.1 percent in the three months through December, the third contraction in four quarters, according to estimates by the Japan Center for Economic Research, an independent analysis group in Tokyo.

Prime Minister Noda’s administration has overseen record sales of yen to counter exchange-rate appreciation that has prompted companies including Nissan Motor Co. and Panasonic Corp. to plan shifting some operations abroad. The U.S. Treasury criticized the currency intervention in a report last month, saying Japan should instead focus on domestic policy initiatives.

“Geithner may be looking for input from America’s key trading partners in Asia on how to promote a sustainable recovery in world economic demand,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., said in an e-mail. “He may want to hear directly as well in face-to- face meetings on just how worried are China and Japan officials about the outlook for their own domestic economies.”

WTO Panel

Commerce may also be on the agenda. The U.S. Trade Representative asked the World Trade Organization last month to establish a panel that will seek a settlement in a conflict with China over duties on American poultry.

China set a duty of as much as 105.4 percent last year on U.S. broiler-chicken products. About 300,000 workers and farmers have been hurt by China’s actions, Trade Representative Ron Kirk said in September.

The chicken-import dispute may add to tensions between the world’s two largest economies, which have clashed over access to each others’ markets for products including steel pipes, tires, movies and music. The WTO rejected in September China’s appeal of a ruling that backed U.S. duties on Chinese tire imports.

Geithner hasn’t been to China since March 2011 and to Japan since November 2010. Treasury officials traveling with him include Lael Brainard, undersecretary for international affairs; Robert Dohner, deputy assistant secretary for Asia; and David Loevinger, senior coordinator for China affairs.

Foreign Sanctions

Obama signed into law Dec. 31 a defense-spending bill that includes a provision that would impose sanctions on foreign financial institutions that conduct transactions with the Central Bank of Iran.

The law gives the administration flexibility by allowing it to waive sanctions for as long as 120 days at a time if the president determines they would threaten national security. Iran threatened last month to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for one-fifth of oil traded worldwide, if sanctions are imposed on its crude exports.

“The regular economic and trade relations and energy cooperation between China and Iran has nothing to do with the nuclear issue,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai told reporters in Beijing Jan. 9. “We should not mix issues with different natures.”

Chinese officials aren’t “as committed to a unified position with the United States, don’t philosophically agree the sanctions should hurt the Iranian people or the Iranian economy,” said Kenneth Katzman, an Iran specialist for the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.

--With assistance from Hans Nichols, Indira Lakshmanan, Michelle Jamrisko and William McQuillen in Washington, Kevin Hamlin in Beijing. Editors: Kevin Costelloe, Gail DeGeorge

To contact the reporters on this story: Ian Katz in Washington at ikatz2@bloomberg.net; Cheyenne Hopkins at Chopkins19@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chris Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

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Japan Set to Unveil India Currency Swap Deal During Noda Visit

December 27, 2011, 3:03 AM EST By Kyoko Shimodoi and Unni Krishnan

(Updates with comment from economist in fourth paragraph.)

Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japan is poised to unveil a currency-swap line with India in its second international financial agreement with top Asian powers this week.

Finance Minister Jun Azumi told reporters today in Tokyo that Japan is negotiating an agreement with India, the third- largest economy in Asia behind China and Japan. The deal is likely to be unveiled during a trip by Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to India that starts today, with the amount of the swap line about $10 billion, a Japanese government official said on condition of anonymity.

Japan agreed with China two days ago to promote direct trading of the yen and yuan without using dollars and start purchases of Chinese bonds for its foreign-exchange reserves. The deal with India would expand the ability to respond to financial shocks as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s administration contends with a slump in the rupee that risks stoking inflation.

“It’s like an insurance cover or padding to the foreign- exchange reserves in a crisis,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, a Mumbai-based economist at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of Standard & Poor’s. “It will help in times of dollar shortage.”

The rupee has plunged about 15 percent against the dollar this year, the worst performance in Asia, after foreign investors sold shares worth $561 million as growth slows and Europe’s protracted sovereign-debt crisis roiled global financial markets. A weakening currency adds to the cost of imported goods in a nation that has the fastest inflation among so-called BRIC nations, with the benchmark wholesale-price index rising more than 9 percent in each of the past 12 months.

Previous Arrangement

While India’s foreign-exchange reserves have risen $4.8 billion in the past year to $302 billion, the country’s holdings are smaller than those of China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong.

India and Japan have previously supported each other with similar arrangements. In 2007, the two nations agreed to support each other in the event of a run on their currencies in the first such foreign-exchange accord for the South Asian nation. Under the plan, Japan would lend dollars and other currencies should India find its foreign-exchange reserves insufficient to stem a fall in the rupee.

Japan has also deployed some of its reserves, the world’s second biggest behind China’s, for aiding Japanese companies in making overseas acquisitions.

Direct Trading

Earlier this week, the Japanese government said Asia’s two largest economies will promote direct trading of the yen and yuan without using dollars and will encourage the development of a market for companies involved in the exchanges.

Japan will also apply to buy Chinese bonds next year, allowing the investment of renminbi that leaves China during the transactions, the Japanese government said in a statement after a meeting between Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing Dec. 25. Encouraging direct yen- yuan settlement should reduce currency risks and trading costs, the two governments said.

China is Japan’s biggest trading partner with 26.5 trillion yen ($340 billion) in two-way transactions last year, from 9.2 trillion yen a decade earlier. The pacts between the world’s second- and third-largest economies mirror attempts by fund managers to diversify as the two-year-old European debt crisis keeps global financial markets volatile.

--With assistance from Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo. Editors: Chris Anstey, Stephanie Phang

To contact the reporters on this story: Kyoko Shimodoi in Tokyo at kshimodoi@bloomberg.net; Unni Krishnan in New Delhi at ukrishnan2@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net

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Bitcoins: Currency of the Geeks

By Barrett Sheridan

Mike Caldwell, the founder of a small company in Salt Lake City that makes timekeeping software, considers himself financially conservative. He's also a geek, and couldn't help but get excited late last year when he heard about bitcoin, a new virtual currency. In February, on one of the handful of online exchanges that have appeared over the past year, he bought about $20,000 worth at less than a dollar per bitcoin. "I felt that maybe I would get a 20 or 50 percent return," says Caldwell, 33. By early June, when he sold the last of his stake, a bitcoin was worth around $30. Caldwell says his total return was well over 1,000 percent. "That magnitude was totally unexpected," he says.

For those who got in early, it's a gold rush. In the last few months this online cash has exploded in usage, notoriety, and value. Like dollars or yen, a bitcoin's worth fluctuates with demand, but in its short history it's gone mostly up. About $130 million worth of bitcoins are now in existence, and the value of that stash has grown more than 6,000 percent this year. Bitcoin partisans are breathless: "This is the biggest invention since the Internet," says Bruce Wagner, an entrepreneur who hosts a monthly bitcoin meet-up group in Manhattan.

The project was started in 2009 by an enigmatic programmer known as Satoshi Nakamoto. He always communicated electronically, never answered personal questions, and disappeared from online forums in December. The conspiracy-minded speculate that Nakamoto was actually a group of people, or a government cryptographer, or a pseudonym for Gavin Andresen, the Amherst (Mass.) programmer who took over the project after Nakamoto vanished. "I spoke to one guy who thought aliens might have come to earth to bring us this technology, it's so perfect," says Wagner.

Digital transactions normally require a trusted intermediary such as PayPal to credit and debit accounts properly and prevent cheating. With bitcoins, "there is no middleman, says Andresen or," more accurately, there's a distributed middleman. Individual transactions are encrypted, logged by a decentralized network running on thousands of home computers, and recorded in a public ledger. The system works similarly to peer-to-peer music-sharing networks in that files are shared among swarms of users, rather than downloaded from a central server.

Suppose you're in the market for alpaca socks, one of the few consumer items you can buy with bitcoins. Step one: Get some BTC—that's the symbol—at a currency exchange site such as Mt.Gox. Then download a desktop app from bitcoin.org, which will store your lucre (some use an online service such as Instawallet.org instead) and connect you to the decentralized bitcoin network. Next, find the alpaca farms bitcoin address, a string of characters also known as a public key. Click the send coins button.

The purchase is unconfirmed until a miner certifies it. Miners are power users who crunch numbers on behalf of the network, and some have racks of computers dedicated to the task. They're called miners because, just as gold miners increase the supply of gold, they create new bitcoins, at an algorithmically controlled rate. The greater their computing power, the more they generate for themselves. Once a miner's computer has processed a transaction, the alpaca farm gets bitcoins and you get socks. It's complex but fast: The bitcoin network has handled as many as 87 quadrillion calculations per second, 35 times more than the top supercomputer.

Bitcoins have all the advantages of cash—free to use, very hard to trace—as well as its disadvantages. That digital wallet is a file on a hard drive or online, and if it's lost or stolen there's no recourse. The currency is backed only by the faith and credit of its participants and outside the scope of any banker, politician, or the Federal Reserve. To a certain breed of libertarian nerd who grew up on cyberpunk, it's the Digital Rapture.

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