2011年7月2日 星期六

Bonds: How to Play Interest Rate Peril

By David Bogoslaw

Interest rates can turn quickly, as the Greek government learned when its 10-year bond soared more than 9 percentage points in the past year on default worries. Such danger has some fixed-income investors considering a new approach: mutual funds that hold a variety of bonds, including U.S. Treasuries, corporates, mortgage-backed securities, municipals, and senior bank loans. Especially attractive now are multisector funds touting a more active approach to portfolio management, with the flexibility to drift from benchmark allocations to respond to changing market conditions.

Fund tracker Morningstar (MORN) estimates that 22 so-called unconstrained bond funds currently manage a total of $53 billion in assets. That's roughly a quarter of 87 multisector bond funds Morningstar has identified with assets under management totaling around $169 billion. The new breed of fund accounts for just a meager fraction of the $2 trillion held by 1,127 taxable bond funds. Fund flows for 12 of the 22 unconstrained funds have generally trended higher since January, with five funds showing big spikes in April or May as the debate around the U.S. debt ceiling heated up. The strategies of these "go-anywhere" funds aren't uniform. Some focus on reducing their portfolio's average duration (the percentage by which a bond's value is likely to drop for every 1 percent rise in interest rates), while others concentrate on getting the highest yield for the least amount of credit risk.

"Multisector funds have been most popular because people are thinking, 'Is there a bond bubble?'" says Philip Condon, head of municipal bonds at DWS Investments in New York. "Investors recognize that Treasuries probably aren't the best value when you see yields" below 3 percent. "Multisector bond funds are offering the ability to find that value in the marketplace."

The nimbleness of these actively managed funds comes at a price. In place of interest rate risk, they often expose investors to elevated credit risk or, in the case of certain emerging market debt, liquidity risk. And some of these funds charge fees roughly twice as high as funds focused on a specific part of the fixed-income market, although high-yield and short-duration funds also tend to have higher fees. "In general, it's a pretty untested group," says Miriam Sjoblom, a bond fund analyst at Morningstar. "We don't have a long track record of seeing how these funds hold up in different environments."

When interest rates rise, bond yields move higher, pushing prices of existing bonds lower and causing investors to lose principal on the bonds in their portfolios. The best protection from this, many believe, is to lower the duration of the bonds they hold, which limits the loss of principal and allows fund managers to buy higher-yielding bonds sooner once interest rates begin to climb. A bond's duration measures how sensitive its price is to a change in interest rates and is calculated by taking the final maturity and yield into consideration.

Rick Rieder, BlackRock's (BLK) chief investment officer for actively managed fixed income and manager of the firm's Strategic Income Opportunities Fund (BASIX), is less concerned now about being burned by rising interest rates than he was six months ago, when the U.S. economy seemed to be on a more certain growth track. In late 2010 and early 2011, Rieder says he had a larger exposure to "risk assets," such as high-yield corporate bonds.

"We still have exposures to high yield and commercial mortgages but have reduced those exposures significantly over the last two months, mostly in anticipation of the end of quantitative easing 2 and increased volatility around that," he says. "The summer is a tougher liquidity period generally, and QE2 provided a tremendous foundation of liquidity because of what the Fed was putting into the system."


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Disappointing Hardware Sales Hit Oracle Stock

By Aaron Ricadela

(Bloomberg) — Oracle Corp. dropped in late trading yesterday after reporting a decline in hardware sales, fueling concern the top maker of database software may not be benefiting as much as predicted from its Sun Microsystems Inc. acquisition.

Hardware sales declined 6 percent to $1.16 billion, Redwood City, California-based Oracle said in a statement yesterday. The company had forecast in March an increase of 6 percent to 12 percent. Shares fell as much as 7.5 percent in extended trading.

Chief Executive Officer Larry Ellison bought Sun last year to capitalize on demand for the servers and databases used in data centers. While the hardware results may reflect Oracle's effort to pare less-profitable machines from the lineup, they were disappointing enough to overshadow better-than-predicted performance in profit and sales of new software licenses.

"This is really the first full year-over-year compare for the hardware business, and it has started on the wrong foot," said Josh Olson, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. in Des Peres, Missouri.

Hardware gross margin, a measure of profitability, rose to 56 percent in the fourth quarter from 46 percent last year, a sign Oracle is making headway selling higher-margin machines.

Oracle is adding sales staff, preparing new computers for release this year and pitching hardware support contracts to boost sales of Sun machines, executives said on a conference call.

Oracle fell as much as $2.45 to $30.01 in late trading yesterday. It had climbed 26? to $32.46 on the Nasdaq Stock Market, and gained 3.7 percent this year before today.

Profit excluding certain costs was 75? a share in the quarter that ended May 31, exceeding the 71? average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales climbed 13 percent to $10.8 billion, meeting analysts' predictions.

Hardware sales may rebound in the current quarter, which ends in August, Oracle Chief Financial Officer Safra Catz said on a conference call. Sales of hardware products may range from a 5 percent increase to a 5 percent decline, Catz said.

New software license sales, a predictor of future sales, will rise 10 percent to 20 percent, she said. Profit excluding certain items will be 45? to 48?, compared with 46? projected by analysts, the company said.

Calculated on a basis that doesn't comply with generally accepted accounting principles, revenue will increase 9 percent to 12 percent this quarter, Catz said. That implies sales of $8.27 billion to $8.5 billion, compared with $8.3 billion, the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

New license sales gained 19 percent last quarter to $3.74 billion, at the high end of Oracle's forecast. That compares with the 13.5 percent growth predicted by Jason Maynard, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, in a June 20 research note.

Ellison is using his purchase of Sun to add computers to the arsenal of programs he has amassed through more than $42 billion in acquisitions since 2005. Oracle has tailored its databases to run faster on new machines using Sun hardware.

The company also has aimed to improve the unit's profit by discontinuing sales of less expensive products and emphasizing its high-performance Exadata and Exalogic computer servers. That may have contributed to the revenue decline, said Peter Goldmacher, an analyst at Cowen & Co. in San Francisco.

Oracle may also be grappling with growing pains related to the buying spree, Goldmacher said.

"The more they acquire and the further afield they get from their core competence, the harder it is to manage the business," Goldmacher said.

Oracle co-President Mark Hurd told analysts Oracle is selling fewer servers at higher prices, and increasing the amount of support contracts and software sold with each system.

"There's no question we want to grow the top line, but we want to grow the top line right," he said.

Ellison said during the conference call that Oracle is taking a pause from large acquisitions because many potential targets are overpriced.

"They're by and large not attractively priced now and don't make sense, so we're not doing them," he said. "Instead we can focus our energies on organic growth."

At Oracle's OpenWorld conference, which begins Oct. 2 in San Francisco, the company plans to announce a computer system for analyzing data in a computer's memory instead of on a disk. Oracle also plans what it calls a "big-data accelerator," a product that will use open-source Hadoop software to help companies handle large amounts of data from various sources.

Oracle's sales growth is expected to taper off as year-earlier figures reflect the acquisition. Sales are projected to increase 8.8 percent to $39 billion in 2012 after surging 34 percent in 2011, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

Ricadela is a reporter for Bloomberg News and Bloomberg Businessweek in San Francisco.


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The 7 Most Common Property Investment Mistakes and How to Avoid Them!

Would Killing the Minimum Wage Help?

By Antoine Gara

Republican Presidential candidate Michele Bachmann has soft-pedaled her opposition to the minimum wage law considerably since 2005, when she was quoted as saying, at a Minnesota State Senate hearing, “Literally, if we took away the minimum wage—if conceivably it was gone—we could potentially virtually wipe out unemployment completely because we would be able to offer jobs at whatever level.” Appearing on CBS’s Face the Nation on June 26, Bachmann would say only that eliminating the minimum wage is “something that obviously Congress would have to look at” as a solution to high unemployment.

Campaign trail positioning aside, would repealing the minimum wage really make a dent in the U.S. jobless rate, which was 9.1 percent in May? While economists don’t all agree, the bulk of research points to only small potential job gains—if any—from a suspension of the minimum wage. In a 2000 survey of 308 academic economists, just under half agreed fully that the minimum wage increases unemployment among “young and unskilled workers.” The rest agreed with that statement with provisos or not at all.

In a 2009 blog post, Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman, cited research by David Neumark, a University of California at Irvine economist, on the job-killing effects of the minimum wage for teens and young adults. In a June 27 interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Neumark stood by those findings. He added, however, that “the link between the federal minimum wage and employment for the lion’s share of workers is irrelevant?… It’s not even in the top 10 list of how to recover from the Great Recession.” (The Bachmann campaign did not respond to an e-mail request for comment.)

For people earning well above the minimum wage, the law matters little. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, of 72.9 million hourly wage earners in 2010, only 6 percent worked at or below the minimum wage. (Some hourly workers, such as casual babysitters, workers on small farms, and fishermen, are not covered by the minimum wage.)

Even for workers at the bottom, the minimum wage’s effect is not obvious. In a study of fast-food workers in New Jersey and neighboring Pennsylvania, Alan Krueger of Princeton University and David Card of the University of California at Berkeley found no statistically significant effects on employment when New Jersey raised its state minimum wage in 1992 and Pennsylvania did not. Says Krueger, who served in the Obama Administration as Assistant Treasury Secretary for economic policy in 2009-10, “I would be skeptical that eliminating the minimum wage would have a noticeable effect on employment.”

Bachmann does have some economists on her side. “Michele Bachmann’s position is not radical,” says Chris Edwards, director of tax policy at the libertarian Cato Institute. Edwards says high unemployment of teenagers in both booms and recessions is evidence that the minimum wage is above the value of their labor. Yet the main cause of unemployment today is a lack of demand, not overpriced labor, says Sylvia Allegretto, a UC Berkeley economist. Even if the minimum wage does keep some low-skilled workers out of the market, eliminating the wage floor doesn’t look like an important way to spur job growth.

The bottom line: Dropping the minimum wage could reduce unemployment among teenagers and other low-skilled laborers—a small part of the workforce.

Gara is an editorial intern for Bloomberg Businessweek.


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Illegal Workers in Alabama: The Exodus

Number of buildings in Tuscaloosa that require reconstruction: 5,362

Number of buildings in Tuscaloosa that require reconstruction: 5,362 Julie Dermansky/Redux

By Margaret Newkirk

When the city of Tuscaloosa, Ala., begins rebuilding more than 5,300 homes and businesses damaged or destroyed by an Apr. 27 tornado, it may find itself missing many of the people it needs to put the city together again. That’s what Ever Duarte, head of the city’s Hispanic soccer league, predicts after losing a third of his teams in a week. Tuscaloosa County’s 6,000-strong Hispanic population—including roofers, drywallers, framers, landscapers, and laborers—is disappearing in anticipation of a new law aimed at ridding the state of illegal immigrants, which takes effect in September. “They’re leaving now, right now,” says Duarte, 36, during a pause in a pickup soccer game. “I know people who are packing up tonight. They don’t want to wait to see what happens.” Two weeks ago, he says, his league had 12 teams. “Last week, it was eight.”

Governor Robert Bentley, a Republican, signed the 72-page measure on June 9, calling it “the strongest immigration bill in the country.” Alabama became the fifth state to enact new, stricter sanctions against undocumented workers, following Arizona, Utah, Indiana, and Georgia. Proposed laws failed this year in 22 states, including Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, and Louisiana.

Alabama goes further than most states in criminalizing assistance to illegal immigrants. Hiring, housing, and providing transportation to undocumented residents will be state crimes. Employers will be required to use the federal E-Verify system to confirm workers’ eligibility. The law also charges police and school officials with checking residency status.

About 55 miles southwest of Birmingham, Tuscaloosa is home to the University of Alabama and its storied Crimson Tide football team. The tornado roared through the city, killing 43 and leaving a path of rubble three-quarters of a mile wide and six miles long. The immigration law threatens to unleash its own havoc as the city tries to rebuild. “Hispanics, documented and undocumented, dominate anything to do with masonry, concrete, framing, roofing, and landscaping,” says Bob McNelly, a contractor with Nash-McCraw Properties. “There are very few subcontractors I work with that don’t have a Hispanic workforce.” Opponents of the new law say those who want to drive out illegal immigrants are willfully ignoring an undeniable truth: Like it or not, undocumented workers are essential to the economy, taking on hard, low-paying jobs Americans often won’t do, even in times of high unemployment. Rebuilding, McNelly says, will be slower and more expensive without them. “It’s not the pay rate. It’s the fact that they work harder than anyone. It’s the work ethic.”

The law’s backers say it is intended in part to create jobs for citizens of Alabama, where unemployment was 9.6 percent in May, a half-point higher than the national average. “This will put thousands of Alabamians back in the workforce,” state Senator Scott Beason, a Republican from Gardendale, said at the law’s signing on June 9.

So far, that hasn’t happened. Some contractors say that as immigrants move away, employers will have a hard time finding enough legal Alabama residents with the skills and desire to take their place. “There are plenty of people capable of working, if they’d just get off their butts and do it,” says Rich Cooper, a contractor with Bell Construction in Tuscaloosa.


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U.S. Stocks Rise to Highest Level Since May on Manufacturing

July 01, 2011, 4:28 PM EDT By Rita Nazareth and Cecile Vannucci

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, sending benchmark indexes to their highest levels since May and the biggest weekly gains in two years, amid an unexpected pickup in American manufacturing growth.

Home Depot Inc., 3M Co. and Intel Corp. rallied at least 1.4 percent, pacing gains among companies most-dependent on economic growth. Apollo Group Inc. jumped 6.4 percent as the operator of for-profit schools reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. KB Home climbed 3.9 percent as the homebuilder said it doesn’t plan to issue equity. Eastman Kodak Co. tumbled 14 percent after a ruling on patent claims against Apple Inc. and Research In Motion Ltd. was postponed.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.4 percent to 1,339.67 at 4 p.m. in New York. That extended its weekly rally to 5.6 percent, the most for the gauge since July 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 168.43 points, or 1.4 percent, to 12,582.77 today. It also advanced the most in a week since July 2009.

“Clearly, today is good news with the manufacturing data,” said Michael Vogelzang, chief investment officer at Boston Advisors LLC, which manages $1.9 billion. “This is just a recovery off of a six-week very difficult period. People are putting the risk trade back on.”

The S&P 500 fell 1.8 percent in June, spurring the first quarterly loss in a year, on concern about Europe’s debt crisis and weaker-than-expected economic data. The index was still up 5 percent in 2011 through yesterday as government stimulus measures, takeovers and higher-than-estimated corporate earnings lifted investors’ confidence.

Stocks extended gains after a report showed that U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly expanded at a faster pace in June, a sign the industry is rebounding after shortages of parts and components from Japan slowed production. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 55.3 last month from 53.5 in May. Economists estimated the index would drop to 52, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion.

The ISM report was a positive surprise at a time when manufacturing growth is slowing from China to Europe, creating a dilemma for central bankers considering higher interest rates to combat inflation. China’s factory index fell to the lowest level since February 2009, while in the 17-nation euro area, a gauge slipped to an 18-month low. German manufacturing expanded at the weakest pace in 17 months, while Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece contracted.

Greece’s Financing

Global stocks also rose. Greece may receive as much as 85 billion euros ($124 billion) in new financing, including a contribution from private investors, in a second bailout aimed at preventing default and ending the euro-region’s debt crisis, according to an Austrian Finance Ministry official.

“Greece is probably going to avert the default,” said Don Wordell, a fund manager for Atlanta-based RidgeWorth Capital Management, which oversees about $48 billion. “It’s a long process, but near-term, I believe they will resolve everything they need there.”

Stocks should rally during the second half of the year, sending the S&P 500 to 1,550 by the end of 2011, as corporate earnings grow and equities remain cheap, Deutsche Bank AG said.

Equities are less expensive, earnings will expand faster than the U.S. economy and there will be a pickup in growth for domestic cyclical industries such as financials, industrials and technology, Bankim “Binky” Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s New York- based chief U.S. equity strategist, said.

--With assistance from Victoria Stilwell in New York. Editors: Joanna Ossinger, Chris Nagi

To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net; Cecile Vannucci in New York at cvannucci1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net


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Variable Annuities: Lifelong Income, High Cost

By Margaret Collins

People worried about losing their retirement savings in the stock market are seeking safety in variable annuities that promise lifelong income. U.S. insurers' sales of variable annuities jumped 24 percent in the first quarter, led by policies that offer guaranteed minimum payments. Moshe Milevsky, finance professor at the Schulich School of Business at York University in Toronto says the products appeal to investors who "fear that the S&P at 1,300 is a mirage and it's going to go back to 700 for the rest of our lives."

Sales of variable annuities in the U.S. climbed to $39.8 billion in the first quarter, from $32.2 billion the year before, according to trade group Limra. Investors withdrew $50 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds in the 12 months through April, according to Morningstar (MORN).

With variable annuities, customers can save for retirement with investments such as stock and bond funds, and their money grows tax-deferred until they withdraw it. For MetLife (MET) and Prudential Financial (PRU), the top two U.S. life insurers, the hottest product this year also offers a guarantee of income for life, even if a customer's account balance falls because of market declines. About 96 percent of Prudential's record $6.8 billion in sales of variable annuities in the first quarter included riders guaranteeing lifetime income. At MetLife, 80 percent of the $5.7 billion of products sold in the quarter carried a guaranteed benefit.

The protection comes at a cost. The annual fee for the guaranteed income rider averages about 1.03 percent of the assets in the account, according to Morningstar. That's on top of the regular annuity fees, which average about 2.51 percent. The high fees mean that "the upside potential" in these contracts is "fairly limited," says Kenneth Masters, director of life insurance design and development for Pinnacle Financial Group.

The contracts also come with so many conditions and limitations that it's difficult for consumers to understand them, and terms vary by insurer. "Say you wanted to compare five products side by side," says Tom Idzorek, global chief investment officer for Morningstar Investment Management. "Good luck."

Here's how a Prudential offering works: A customer buys a variable annuity and picks investments such as stock and bond funds offered in the contract. When the owner decides to start taking out money, his or her annual income is based on the highest value the account ever reaches, increasing at a 5 percent annual rate until withdrawals begin. That amount "is not available to cash in," says Jac Herschler, head of business strategy for Prudential's annuity division. "It's only the basis for determining what they can withdraw from their accounts every year." The limit on withdrawals for someone 59? to 84 years old who wants to get the same amount of income annually is 5 percent.

New York Life is launching a competitive product in July that it claims is simpler, called a deferred income annuity. You pay now and select a date in the future when you want to start receiving payouts. For example, a male who buys a deferred income annuity for $100,000 at age 65 can get $17,805 a year for life starting at age 75.

An even less complicated approach is an immediate annuity. Buying one through Vanguard, a man can pay $100,000 at age 65 and get as much as $7,514 a year for as long as he lives. A drawback with immediate annuities is that buyers are turning their money over to the insurer—and generally no longer have access to it, as they would with a variable annuity. Even so, "an immediate annuity is the simplest way to get an income that you cannot outlive," says Glenn Daily, an insurance consultant in New York. "Easy to understand and easy to compare policies. No need to manage anything or make any other decisions after you buy it."

The bottom line: While lifetime income guarantees on variable annuities offer protection against investment losses, they are complicated and expensive.

Collins is a reporter for Bloomberg News.


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